Papers in progress
Science on the Verge
News & Videos
News & Videos
Post normal model validation? Surely you must be joking, iEMSs Conference 2020, International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, September 15, 2020.
Sensitivity Analysis, MNF990 / Theory of Science and Ethics, Bergen, September 14, 2020.
Published: Isabelle Bruno, Andrea Saltelli, 2020, Statistiques et modèles mathématiques : doit-on les laisser nous gouverner ? , The Conversation (FR), September 6, 2020
Interview with michele Catanzaro at the European Conference of Science Journalism, (virtual) Trieste 2020.
see here some notes and sources.
New chapter published: A CLIMATE OF DIALOGUE by Andrea Saltelli and Paul-Marie Boulanger, 2020, in DIMENSIONS OF INTRA- AND INTERGENERATIONAL JUSTICE IN THE DEBATES ABOUT SUSTAINABILITY, Silvija Serafimova Editor, published by Avangard Prima, Sofia.
COVID-19: Perché i numeri sbagliano, di Monica Di Fiore, Tommaso Portaluri, Andrea Saltelli, Paolo Vineis, LIVE, supplemento mensile de La Repubblica, July 30, 2020.
From sociology of quantification to ethics of quantification, by Andrea Saltelli and Monica Di Fiore, accepted for publication in Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, July 17, 2020.
Per un'etica dei numeri e dei modelli COVID-19/Filosofia, 08/07/2020, di Andrea Saltelli, Tommaso Portaluri, Monica Di Fiore, Paolo Vineis, Luca Carra, Scienza in Rete.
M. Di Fiore, T. Portaluri, A. Saltelli, 6 Luglio 2020, Cinque modi per garantire che i modelli servano la società, ROARS.
A. Saltelli, G. Bammer, I. Bruno, E. Charters, M. Di Fiore, E. Didier, W. Nelson Espeland, J. Kay, S. Lo Piano, D. Mayo, R.J. Pielke, T. Portaluri, T.M. Porter, A. Puy, I. Rafols, J.R. Ravetz, E. Reinert, D. Sarewitz, P.B. Stark, A. Stirling, P. van der Sluijs, Jeroen P. Vineis, Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto, Nature 582 (2020) 482–484.
-->Taken up in El Pais: Elogio de la incertidumbre
Taken up in The Canberra Times: We need new rules on COVID-19 modelling
Taken up in the online journal reason.com: Is the COVID-19 Pandemic Self-Flattening, or Will It Grind Relentlessly on?
Taken up in the Italian journal Il Manifesto: Covid, analisi dei dati: «Anche i modelli matematici sono influenzabili»
-->Taken up in Scienza in Rete, with an interview: Per un'etica dei numeri e dei modelli
-->Taken up in El Periodico (Spanish version): Modelos matemáticos y decisiones políticas
-->Taken up in El Periodico (Catalan version version): Models matemàtics i decisions polítiques
-->Taken up in Il Corriere Nazionale: Appello degli scienziati per modelli matematici “responsabili”
-->Taken up in the Catalan La Vanguardia: Científicos advierten del uso político de los modelos matemáticos
-->On the pages of the French CNRS: Quelle est la responsabilité des statistiques en temps de crise ?
-->On the pages of the Italian CNR: Da Nature un appello per modelli matematici "responsabili"
-->On the pages of the Dutch University of Leiden: Five principles to preserve social trust in scientific modelling
-->On the pages of the Dutch University of Utrecht: Plea for acknowledgement of uncertainties in policy-guiding models: “No one model can serve all purposes”
-->On the pages of the UK University of Sussex: Role models: The need for responsible modelling in the age of pandemic
-->On the pages of the Norwegian University of Bergen: Can we ensure that mathematical models serve society?
-->On the pages of the UK University of Reading: #WeAreTogether: 'Uncertainty in pandemic forecasts must be communicated'
-->On the pages of the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya,
, Cómo construir modelos matemáticos más útiles para la sociedad, by Juan Vilá.
-->On the pages of the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya,
, Com es poden construir models matemàtics més útils per a la societat, by Juan Vilá.
-->On the pages of the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya,
, How to build more useful mathematical models for society, by Juan Vilá.
Mal fare, dir vero? Per una scienza con la ‘s’ minuscola, di Andrea Saltelli e Tommaso Portaluri - 11 Maggio 2020, ROARS.
Paul-Marie Boulanger, Andrea Saltelli, Pandemic Luhmann, on SSRN: SSRN-id3586526.
... also on Zenodo, https://zenodo.org/record/3782316.
Monica Di Fiore, Tommaso Portaluri, Andrea Saltelli, 2020, Post-verità e scienza, Federalismi.it, 11, 110-124.
A. Puy, S. Lo Piano, A. Saltelli, 2020, Current models underestimate future irrigated areas, Geophysical Research Letters, Open access, online, doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087360.
Postnormal pandemics: Why COVID-19 requires a new approach to science, guest post on STEPS by David Waltner-Toews, Annibale Biggeri, Bruna De Marchi, Silvio Funtowicz, Mario Giampietro, Martin O’Connor, Jerome R. Ravetz, Andrea Saltelli and Jeroen P. van der Sluijs.
Lesson in Girona: Integrity at times of crisis, INPhINIT PhD training sessions, Girona, CaixaForum, 26/02/2020.
Accepted, Arnald Puy, Samuele Lo Piano, Andrea Saltelli, A sensitivity analysis of the PAWN sensitivity index, Environmental Modelling and Software
Lessons in Bergen, Vatnahalsen, courses MNF990: Theory of Science and Ethics, Bergen, and VITSV900: Philosophy of Social Science and Ethics, Vatnahalsen. (1,2) Ethics of quantification,
(3) Sensitiviy analysis.
Lecture at ISGlobal, Barcelona on Numbers for Policy.
Accepted & available online, Andrea Saltelli, Lorenzo Benini, Silvio Funtowicz, Mario Giampietro, Matthias Kaiser, Erik Reinert, Jeroen P. van der Sluijs, The technique is never neutral. How methodological choices condition the generation of narratives for sustainability, Accepted for publication in Environmental Science and Policy, January 16, 2020.
Available online, Siddharth Sareen, Andrea Saltelli and Kjetil Rommetveit, Ethics of quantification: illumination, obfuscationand performative legitimation.
Lessons on Open science for responsible quantification, seminar: From Responsible Research and Innovation to Open Science, Udine, register at http://bit.ly/RRIUd.
Seminar at the University of Bergamo, The indiscreet charm of [composite] indicators, 28 gennaio 2020 14:30 - 15:30, Aula Bertocchi, via dei Caniana 2, Seminari di dipartimento, Persona di riferimento: dott.ssa Annamaria Bianchi, email@example.com Strutture interne organizzatrici: Dipartimento di Scienze Aziendali, Economiche e Metodi Quantitativi.
Accepted: Kuc-Czarnecka, M., Lo Piano, S. and Saltelli, A. (2020) ‘Quantitative storytelling in the making of a composite indicator’, Social Indicators Research.
Available online, New article published in FUTURES, "Ethics of quantification or quantification of ethics?", Open access.
Interview with the Spanish newspaper El Confidential: "Por qué PISA puede ser un peligro: “Su objetivo es que seamos intercambiables”"
"Fake news and science", Le Fake News e il ruolo degli esperti nell’agorà digitale, Università di Torino, 29 Novembre 2019, Circolo dei lettori, Via Bogino 9 - Torino.
Technoscience, policy and the new media. Nexus or vortex?
Available online, New article published in FUTURES, with Paul Marie Boulanger: "Technoscience, policy and the new media. Nexus or vortex?" Open access. Volume 115, January 2020, 102491.
"The crisis in the quality control of science and its impact on science's social functions", Research Forum Workshop: Towards an impactful evidence-based research grant-making, Wednesday, November 27, 2019, "la Caixa" Foundation headquarters, Avenue Diagonal, 621-629, Barcelona 08028, Spain.
Webinar on Sensitivity Analysis and neighbourhoods, Royal Society-DFID Africa Capacity Building Initiative, Faculty of Engineering, University of Mauritius and Sustainable Energy Pole of Research Excellence (SEPRE), November 22, 2018.
(Guest post): What can we learn from the debate on statistical significance? Posted on November 22, 2019 on errorstatistics.com, the blog of statistician Deborah Mayo.
Course Numbers for Policy, Castelldefels, November 18-21, 2019
Sensitivity Analysis: an introduction, Thursday, 7th November 2019 12:30 pm, Bocconi University, Room 3-E4-SR03 Via Roentgen 1 Milano.
PRESENTATION a SAMO2019: A brief history od SAMO, Ninth International Conference of Sensitivity analysis #SAMO_2019, Barcelona, Castelldefels, October 28-30 2019.
PRESENTATION a SAMO2019: Why so many published sensitivity analyses are false: a systematic review of sensitivity analysis practices, by Andrea Saltelli, Ksenia Aleksankina, William Becker, Pamela Fennell, Federico Ferretti, Niels Holst, Qiongli Wu, Ninth International Conference of Sensitivity analysis #SAMO_2019, Barcelona, Castelldefels, October 28-30 2019.
Climate fixing, geoengineering and zeitgeist, Course VIT212 Klima: Hva vet vi? Hva bør vi gjøre? Bergen, September 17, 2019.
Sensitivity analysis for mathematical modelling, Course MNF990 19H / Theory of Science and Ethics, Bergen, Thormøhlens gate 51 (VilVite), Konferanserom CD, September 12, 2019.
Sensitivity analysis for mathematical modelling
, Course MNF990 19H / Theory of Science and Ethics, Bergen, Thormøhlens gate 51 (VilVite), Konferanserom CD, September 12, 2019.
Closing keynote at the 2019 ENBIS conference in Budapest: Sensitivity analysis, an introduction, September 4th, 2019, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, Budapest.
Paper published in Nature Communications: A short comment on statistical versus mathematical modelling, Nature Communications, 10, Article number: 3870, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11865-8.
Birthday extravaganza seminar at SVT (Centre for the study of the Sciences and the Humanities): Ethics of quantification, August 26, 2019.
My first course as responsible professor: Course NANO310, Ethics of nanotechnologies, in Bergen, August 2019 - reading list
Here all the lessons.
New paper published, Andrea Saltelli, 2019, Smettiamola di fingere: quantificare non è un’operazione neutrale (Drop the act: quantification is never neutral), Epidemiologia e Prevenzione, 43 (2-3):121-123.
Lecture in Milan: La scienza nel mirino: prove, controversie e partecipazione, Istituto Mario Negri Milano, Via Mario Negri, 2, 20156 Milano, 26 Giugno h 14.00 – 15.30.
Paper published: Samuele Lo Piano, Andrea Saltelli and Jeroen P. van der Sluijs, 2019, Silver as a Constraint for a Large-Scale Development of Solar Photovoltaics? Scenario-Making to the Year 2050 Supported by Expert Engagement and Global Sensitivity Analysis, Frontiers in Energy Research, 14 June 2019, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2019.00056.
Lecture in Barcelona: Expertise, participation, and evidence at an age of crisis, COST Course “Mobilising data for energy poverty research and action”, UAB, ICTA, June 4, 2019, Bellaterra, Barcelona.
Lecture in Oxford: The future of science, Science – Post-Normal Perspectives, Jerry Ravetz at 90, Oxford, Oxford Martin School, May 31, 2019.
Paper published in Nature: Views from a continent in flux. Nature asked nine leading Europeans to pick their top priority for science at this pivotal point. Love, money, and trust got most votes; by Carlos Moedas, Isabelle Vernos, Stephan Kuster, Helga Nowotny, Andrea Saltelli, Alina Mungiu-Pippidi, Jan Wouter Vasbinder, Daniel R. Brooks & Patrick Cunningham, Nature 569, 481-484 (2019)
Lecture in Naples: Sensitivity analysis, an introduction. Seminar the Dipartimento di scienze economiche e statistiche, Federico II University, Naples, May 16, 2019.
Lecture in Bergen: Technoscience, policy and the new media. One or many crises? Seminar at the Senter for vitenskapsteori, SVT-UIB, Parkveien 9, Bergen, Monday the 18th of March 2019.
Seminar: Sensitivity analysis, an introduction. Seminar at Auditorio de Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria, March 11, 2019 .
Interview with The Corbett Report on the crisis of science, March 6, 2019.
New article published on EMS: Andrea Saltelli, Ksenia Aleksankina, William Becker, Pamela Fennell, Federico Ferretti, Niels Holst, Sushan Li, Qiongli Wu, Why so many published sensitivity analyses are false: a systematic review of sensitivity analysis practices, Environmental Modelling and Software, Volume 114, April 2019, Pages 29-39.
Lessons: The case of the p-test and science reproducibility problems.
Philosophy of Social Sciences
, Vatnahalsen, and
Theory of Science and Ethics
, Bergen, February 2019 .
Seminar: Sensitivity analysis, an introduction, Seminar at CERFACS, December 3rd, 2019, 10.30,42 Avenue Gaspard Coriolis, Toulouse .
Qui homologa el coneixement en la societat de la (des)informació? Dialogue between Andrea Saltelli and Bjorn Stensaker, at Palau Macaya, November 15, 2018.
Keynote talk given at PNS_4: Crisis? Surely you're joking, Post Normal Science Symposium, Barcelona, UOC @ Tibidabo, November 15-17, 2018.
English translation of the piece from JON KÅRE TIME in Morgenbladet (published in Norwegian June 14, 2018): An interview to Andrea Saltelli and Daniele Fanelli on science's crisis.
Lecures Sensitivity analysis, and
Statistics on the Verge, given in Berkeley on September 26, 2018.
Andrea Saltelli, Statistics on the Verge, Lecure for the Bergen Students Association, September 11, 2018, Det Akademiske Kvarter, Bergen.
August 27-September 1
Course at Castelldefels (Barcelona)
Numbers for Policy, Castelldefels, August 27, September 1,
Talk given in Oxford, in tandem with Philip Mirowski: Crisis? Surely you must be joking,
Seminar Crisis, what crisis in Science?
Monday July 30, 2018, Institute for Science, Innovation and Society, Oxford University,
New article on Futures: Why science’s crisis should not become a political battling ground.
New piece on The Conversation: Debate: Donald Trump’s war on science and its long-lasting consequences .
New article published, Philip B. Stark and Andrea Saltelli, Cargo-cult statistics and scientific crisis, SIGNIFICANCE, 05 July 2018.
Published: for subscribers to the Norwegian journal Morgenbladet an interview to Andrea Saltelli and Daniele Fanelli on science's crisis.
Lecture at the Summer School on Sensitivity Analysis – SAMO 2018 Ranco (Italy) - June 11-15, 2018.
Seminar at CERN Geneve, Crisis? Surely you must be joking.
Thanks to the hard work and perseverance of Wu Qiongli from the Chinese Academy of Sciences the Sensitivity Analysis Primer is now available to Chinese students and practitioners.
Link to buy online 1
Link to buy online 2
Wuhan Institute of Physics and Mathematics,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CHINA
Esiste un “giusto posto” per la scienza e l’innovazione? Conversazione con Silvio Funtowicz e Andrea Saltelli a cura di Monica Di Fiore e Alba L’Astorina, DOI: 10.26324/2018RRICNRBOOK25, nel volume curato dalle stesse ed intitolato 'Scienziati in affanno? Ricerca e Innovazione Responsabili (RRI) in teoria e nelle pratiche'.
First plenary meeting of the Peder Sather project in Bergen, attended by
P. Stark, U of Berkeley
Leif Rune Hellevik (U. Trondheim, NO),
Samuele lo Piano (Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, Catalonia)
Jeroen van der Sluis, SVT-UIB and
Andrea Saltelli, SVT-UIB & OE-UOC
New piece published: Reinert, E. and Saltelli, A., Debate: What is missing in the ‘33 Theses for an Economics Reformation’, The Conversation, March 29, 2018.
, New piece published: Saltelli, A., Lo Piano, S. , 2018, Doing the Sum Right or the Right Sums? Techno-Optimist Numbers in Food Security Scenarios, Front. Sustain. Food Syst., 14 March 2018 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2018.00006
Three lectures on Ethics of quantification given at the Course VITSV900 Philosophy of Social Science and Ethics Vatnahalsen, (NO), February 13-16, 2018.
Lecture: Andrea Saltelli, Ethics of quantification, PhD Course: Maintaining Scientific Integrity in Present Day Academic Reality, Utrecht, January 30, 2018.
Lecture: Andrea Saltelli, The now of Science: Crises and Reformation, Seminar “New Narratives in Science and Economics”, UOC Poblenou, Barcelona, Monday Jan 22, 2018.
New correspondence published in Nature: Saltelli, A., Stark, P., 2018, Fixing statistics is more than a technical issue, Nature, doi: 10.1038/d41586-018-00647-9
New piece published in The Conversation: Gothenburg’s summit for fair jobs and growth: a new narrative for Europe? The Conversation, January 8, 2018.
Paper uploaded on ArXiv: Andrea Saltelli, 2017, Does modelling need a Reformation? Ideas for a new grammar of modelling.
Paper uploaded on ArXiv: Why So Many Published Sensitivity Analyses Are False. A Systematic Review of Sensitivity Analysis Practices, by Andrea Saltelli, Ksenia Aleksankina, William Becker, Pamela Fennell, Federico Ferretti, Niels Holst, Sushan Li, Qiongli Wu
Paper published The Conversation: Science’s credibility crisis: why it will get worse before it can get better, The Conversation, November 9, 2017.
Paper published in Epidemiologia e Prevenzione (in Italian): Statistiche al tempo della crisi, Epidemiol Prev 2017; 41 (3-4): 165-169.
Lecture Ethics of quantification,
Quantitative tools for responsible quantification, Course: "Theory of Science and Ethics"
for the PhD students from the Faculty of Science and Mathematics of Bergen University, September 13, 2017.
Paper published in Food Ethics: Problematic Quantifications: a Critical Appraisal of Scenario Making for a Global ‘Sustainable’ Food Production, by Saltelli A Piano S, Food Ethics, 2017 pp: 1-7, DOI 10.1007/s41055-017-0020-6.
New chapter published in a Handbook: William Becker , Paolo Paruolo, Michaela Saisana, Andrea Saltelli, Weights and Importance in Composite Indicators: Mind the Gap, in Handbook of Uncertainty Quantification, Editors: Roger Ghanem, David Higdon, Houman Owhadi, ISBN: 978-3-319-12384-4 (Print) 978-3-319-12385-1, pp 1187-1216.
on Research Gate.
Cost Action for Sensitivity Auditing Rejected
New handbook entry: William Becker , Paolo Paruolo, Michaela Saisana, Andrea Saltelli, Weights and Importance in Composite Indicators: Mind the Gap Handbook of Uncertainty Quantification, pp 1187-1216
Interview with the Social Observary of La Caixa: «Science was never intended to be in the market, but today it’s a commodity», also in Castillian and Catalan.
Presentation: Mashup or social discovery? Composite indicators in the fray, Workshop Monitoring Convergence in the European Union Experts’ workshop, Eurofound, 13 – 14 June 2017
Philip Stark (U. Berkeley), Andrea Saltelli, Jeroen van der Sluijs (U. Bergen) and Leif Rune Hellevik (U. Trondheim) have been awarded by the Peder Sather Center for Advanced Study of Berkeley a Peder Sather Grant in the amount of $25,000 for a project named “Mainstreaming Sensitivity Analysis And Uncertainty Auditing.”
New piece published on The Conversation: International PISA tests show how evidence-based policy can go wrong, The Conversation, June 12, 2017
Andrea Saltelli and Silvio Funtowicz, 2017, What is science's crisis really about, Futures, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2017.05.010
Seminar at ICTA: What is post-normal science and why do we need it today? with Silvio Funtowicz and Andrea Saltelli. Room: Z/023, Time: 11:30
Workshop at the Technical University of Denmark - DTU, Lyngby Campus, Chemical Engineering: Sensitivity Analysis and Beyond, Time 10:00-14:30
Seminar at Technical University of Denmark - DTU, Lyngby Campus, Chemical Engineering: Is there really a crisis in science? , Time 14:00-15:00
New piece published on The Conversation: Forcing consensus is bad for science and society>
Interview (in Norwegian) published on Forskerforum; title 'Resists against idealizing research'">
Course at the Joint Research Centre of Ispra: ‘Sensitivity analysis, sensitivity auditing and beyond’.
Course in Bergen: Numbers for policy: Practical problems in quantification'.
New piece published on The Conversation: Scientists’ march on Washington is a bad idea – here’s why, The Conversation, March 8, 2017 7.54am GMT
New paper published: Luisa Araújo, Andrea Saltelli, Sylke V. Schnepf, 2017, Do PISA data justify PISA-based education policy?, International Journal of Comparative Education and Development.
New paper published: Ângela Guimarães Pereiraa, Andrea Saltelli, 2017, Post-normal Institutional Identities: Quality Assurance, Reflexivity and Ethos of Care? Futures, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2016.11.009
New paper published: Andrea Saltelli, Mario Giampietro, 2017, What is wrong with evidence based policy, and how can it be improved? Futures, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1016/j.futures.2016.11.012.
Course in UIB Bellaterra Campus, Barcelona: ‘Sensitivity analysis, sensitivity auditing and beyond’.
Published on The Conversation: A. Saltelli, Silvio Funtowicz: To tackle the post-truth world, science must reform itself ....
... and republished on the Huffington Post.
Keynote lecture: Knowledge challenges at the science-policy interface, European Environmental Agency, Copenhagen, Management Board Seminar, December 6, 2016
Cost Action for Sensitivity Auditing Submitted
Piece published on SIGNIFICANCE: 'Young Statistician, You shall live adventurous times', The Royal Statistical Society magazine SIGNIFICANCE
November 30th - December 3rd
Keynote lecture: Present challenges in sensitivity analysis, by Andrea Saltelli, SAMO 2016, La Reunion (FR).
Piece published on The Conversation:
Andrea Saltelli, Silvio Funtowicz, Science wars in the age of Donald Trump, November 2016 The Conversation.
Appointed Professor 2 at the Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities (SVT)
Piece published on The Conversation:
Andrea Saltelli, Science in crisis: from the sugar scam to Brexit, our faith in experts is fading, September 27, 2016 The Conversation.
August 14: Just started using Kudos:
Piece published on The Guardian,
Andrea Saltelli and Silvio Funtowicz, “Science cannot solve these problems alone because it helped to create them in the first place”.
Extended version of the piece
Letter published on New Scientist,
Andrea Saltelli, Jerome R. Ravetz and Silvio Funtowicz, A new community for science, NEW SCIENTIST, issue 3079, p. 53, 22 June 2016.
New article on the ecological footprint published: Alessandro Galli , Mario Giampietro , Steve Goldfinger , Elias Lazarus , David Lin , Andrea Saltelli , Matthis Wackernagel , Felix Müller, 2016, Questioning the ecological footprint , Ecological Indicators, 69, 224–232.
A letter published in Nature: Saltelli, A., Funtowicz, S., Giampietro, M., Sarewitz, D., Stark, P.B., van der Sluijs, J.P., 2016, Climate costing is politics not science, Nature, 14 April, 532, 177.
A new post on the book 'Science on the Verge' on the blog of the International Social Science Council in Paris.
An interview for Wiley's Statistics View,
analysis, sensitivity auditing, science for policy, impact assessment