Papers in progress
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Razavi, S., Jakeman, A., Saltelli, A., Prieur, C., Iooss, B., Borgonovo, E., … Maier, H. R. (2020). The Future of Sensitivity Analysis: An Essential Discipline for Systems Modeling and Policy Support. Environmental Modelling & Software, 104954. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104954.
Here as preprint
Samuele Lo Piano, Federico Ferretti, Arnald Puy, Daniel Albrecht, Andrea Saltelli, 2020, Variance-based sensitivity analysis: The quest for better estimators and designs between explorativity and economy, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Volume 206, February 2021, 107300 .
George F. De Martino, Ilene Grabel, Helga Nowotny, Andrea Saltelli and Brian Wynne: responses to "Control in Crisis: A DISCUSSION OF COVID-19 and the Futility of Control in the Modern World", by Andrew Stirling, Ian Scoones, Issues in Science and Technology, Vol. XXXVII, No. 1, Fall 2020.
Arnald Puy, Samuele Lo Piano, Andrea Saltelli, 2020, Is VARS more intuitive and efficient than Sobol' indices?, arXiv:2009.12558.
Isabelle Bruno, Andrea Saltelli, 2020, Statistiques et modèles mathématiques : doit-on les laisser nous gouverner ? , The Conversation (FR), September 6, 2020.
Arnald Puy, William Becker, Samuele Lo Piano, Andrea Saltelli, 2020, The battle of total-order sensitivity estimators, arXiv.org, arXiv:2009.01147.
Andrea Saltelli and Monica Di Fiore, 2020, From sociology of quantification to ethics of quantification, Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-020-00557-0.
A. Saltelli, G. Bammer, I. Bruno, E. Charters, M. Di Fiore, E. Didier, W. Nelson Espeland, J. Kay, S. Lo Piano, D. Mayo, R.J. Pielke, T. Portaluri, T.M. Porter, A. Puy, I. Rafols, J.R. Ravetz, E. Reinert, D. Sarewitz, P.B. Stark, A. Stirling, P. van der Sluijs, Jeroen P. Vineis, Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto, Nature 582 (2020) 482–484.
COVID-19: Perché i numeri sbagliano, di Monica Di Fiore, Tommaso Portaluri, Andrea Saltelli, Paolo Vineis, LIVE, supplemento mensile de La Repubblica, July 30, 2020.
Per un'etica dei numeri e dei modelli COVID-19/Filosofia, 08/07/2020, di Andrea Saltelli, Tommaso Portaluri, Monica Di Fiore, Paolo Vineis, Luca Carra, Scienza in Rete.
M. Di Fiore, T. Portaluri, A. Saltelli, 6 Luglio 2020, Cinque modi per garantire che i modelli servano la società, ROARS.
A. Saltelli, Tommaso Portaluri, Mal fare, dir vero? Per una scienza con la ‘s’ minuscola, ROARS, May 11, 2020.
A. Saltelli, 2020, Ethics of quantification or quantification of ethics?, FUTURES, Volume 116, February 2020, 102509.
Paul-Marie Boulanger, Andrea Saltelli, Pandemic Luhmann, on SSRN: SSRN-id3586526.
... also on Zenodo, https://zenodo.org/record/3782316. ---
To be cited as: Paul-Marie Boulanger, Andrea Saltelli, Pandemic Luhmann, 2020, Law & Humanities eJournal Vol 24, Issue 21, May 07.
Monica Di Fiore, Tommaso Portaluri, Andrea Saltelli, 2020, Post-verità e scienza, Federalismi.it, 11, 110-124.
A. Puy, S. Lo Piano, A. Saltelli, 2020, Current models underestimate future irrigated areas, Geophysical Research Letters, Open access, Volume 47, Issue 8, doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087360.
Postnormal pandemics: Why COVID-19 requires a new approach to science, guest post on STEPS by David Waltner-Toews, Annibale Biggeri, Bruna De Marchi, Silvio Funtowicz, Mario Giampietro, Martin O’Connor, Jerome R. Ravetz, Andrea Saltelli and Jeroen P. van der Sluijs.
Arnald Puy, Samuele Lo Piano, Andrea Saltelli, A sensitivity analysis of the PAWN sensitivity index, Environmental Modelling and Software, Volume 127, May 2020, 104679
Andrea Saltelli, Lorenzo Benini, Silvio Funtowicz, Mario Giampietro, Matthias Kaiser, Erik Reinert, Jeroen P. van der Sluijs, 2020, The technique is never neutral. How methodological choices condition the generation of narratives for sustainability, Environmental Science and Policy, Volume 106, Pages 87-98.
Kuc-Czarnecka, M., Lo Piano, S. and Saltelli, A. (2020) ‘Quantitative storytelling in the making of a composite indicator’, Social Indicators Research, 149(3), 775-802, 2020.
Andrea Saltelli and Paul Marie Boulanger, 2020: "Technoscience, policy and the new media. Nexus or vortex?", FUTURES, Volume 115, January 2020, 102491, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2019.102491.
Siddharth Sareen, Andrea Saltelli and Kjetil Rommetveit, Ethics of quantification: illumination, obfuscationand performative legitimation.
Arnald Puy, Emanuele Borgonovo, Samuele Lo Piano, Andrea Saltelli, Are the results of the groundwater model robust? ArXiv.org/abs/1912.10814.
(Guest post): What can we learn from the debate on statistical significance? Posted on November 22, 2019 on errorstatistics.com, the blog of statistician Deborah Mayo.
Andrea Saltelli, 2019, A short comment on statistical versus mathematical modelling, Nature Communications, 10, Article number: 3870, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11865-8.
Andrea Saltelli, 2019, Smettiamola di fingere: quantificare non è un’operazione neutrale (Drop the act: quantification is never neutral), Epidemiologia e Prevenzione, 43 (2-3):121-123.
Samuele Lo Piano, Andrea Saltelli and Jeroen P. van der Sluijs, 2019, Silver as a Constraint for a Large-Scale Development of Solar Photovoltaics? Scenario-Making to the Year 2050 Supported by Expert Engagement and Global Sensitivity Analysis, Frontiers in Energy Research, 14 June 2019, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2019.00056.
Views from a continent in flux. Nature asked nine leading Europeans to pick their top priority for science at this pivotal point. Love, money, and trust got most votes; by Carlos Moedas, Isabelle Vernos, Stephan Kuster, Helga Nowotny, Andrea Saltelli, Alina Mungiu-Pippidi, Jan Wouter Vasbinder, Daniel R. Brooks & Patrick Cunningham, Nature 569, 481-484 (2019)
Here as published on the paper version of Nature
Andrea Saltelli, Ksenia Aleksankina, William Becker, Pamela Fennell, Federico Ferretti, Niels Holst, Sushan Li, Qiongli Wu, Why so many published sensitivity analyses are false: a systematic review of sensitivity analysis practices, Environmental Modelling and Software, Volume 114, April 2019, Pages 29-39.
See here draft.
English translation of the piece from JON KÅRE TIME in Morgenbladet (published in Norwegian June 14, 2018): An interview to Andrea Saltelli and Daniele Fanelli on science's crisis.
Andrea Saltelli, 2018, Discussion Paper: Should statistics rescue mathematical modelling? ArXiv https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.06457.
Andrea Saltelli, 2018, Why science’s crisis should not become a political battling ground, FUTURES, vol. 104, p. 85-90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.07.006.
Andrea Saltelli, 2018, Debate: Donald Trump’s war on science and its long-lasting consequences. The Conversation, July 11.
Roger Strand, Andrea Saltelli, Mario Giampietro, Kjetil Rommetveit, Silvio Funtowicz, 2018, New narratives for innovation, Journal of Cleaner Production Volume 197, Part 2, 1 October 2018, Pages 1849-1853.
Philip B. Stark and Andrea Saltelli, Cargo-cult statistics and scientific crisis, SIGNIFICANCE, 05 July 2018.
Reinert, E. and Saltelli, A., Debate: What is missing in the ‘33 Theses for an Economics Reformation’, The Conversation, March 29, 2018.
Saltelli, A., Lo Piano, S. , 2018, Doing the Sum Right or the Right Sums? Techno-Optimist Numbers in Food Security Scenarios, Front. Sustain. Food Syst., 14 March 2018 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2018.00006
Saltelli, A., Stark, P., 2018, Fixing statistics is more than a technical issue, Nature, doi: 10.1038/d41586-018-00647-9
Saltelli, A., Gothenburg’s summit for fair jobs and growth: a new narrative for Europe? The Conversation, January 8, 2018.
Saltelli, A., Science’s credibility crisis: why it will get worse before it can get better, The Conversation, November 9, 2017.
Saltelli, A., Philip Stark, Statistiche al tempo della crisi, Epidemiologia e Prevenzione (in Italian): 2017; 41 (3-4): 165-169.
Andrea Saltelli, A., and Lo Piano, S., 2017, Problematic quantifications: a critical appraisal of scenario making for a global ‘sustainable’ food production, Food Ethics, 1(2), p. 173–179.
William Becker , Paolo Paruolo, Michaela Saisana, Andrea Saltelli, Weights and Importance in Composite Indicators: Mind the Gap, in Handbook of Uncertainty Quantification, Editors: Roger Ghanem, David Higdon, Houman Owhadi, ISBN: 978-3-319-12384-4 (Print) 978-3-319-12385-1, pp 1187-1216.
on Research Gate.
Saltelli, A., International PISA tests show how evidence-based policy can go wrong, The Conversation, June 12, 2017
Andrea Saltelli, Silvio Funtowicz, 2017, What is science’s crisis really about? FUTURES, Volume 91, Pages 5-11, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2017.05.010
Saltelli, A., Giampietro, M., Gomiero, T., Forcing consensus is bad for science and society, The Conversation, May 11, 2017.
Andrea Saltelli, Daniel Albrecht, Stefano Tarantola and Federico Ferretti, 2017, A new sample-based algorithm to compute the total sensitivity index, arXiv:1703.05799 [stat.AP]
Luisa Araújo, Andrea Saltelli, Sylke V. Schnepf, 2017, Do PISA data justify PISA-based education policy?, International Journal of Comparative Education and Development, Volume 19, Issue 1, p. 1-17.
Saltelli, A., Scientists’ march on Washington is a bad idea – here’s why, The Conversation, March 8, 2017 7.54am GMT
Ângela Guimarães Pereira, Andrea Saltelli, 2017, Post-normal Institutional Identities: Quality Assurance, Reflexivity and Ethos of Care? Futures, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2016.11.009
Andrea Saltelli, Mario Giampietro, 2017, What is wrong with evidence based policy, and how can it be improved? Futures, 91, 62-71.
A. Saltelli, Silvio Funtowicz, 2107, To tackle the post-truth world, science must reform itself, The Conversation, January 27
Republished on the Huffington Post.
Andrea Saltelli, 2016, "Young Statistician, You shall live adventurous times", SIGNIFICANCE (The Royal Statistical Society), December 2016, Volume 13, Issue 6, (pages 38–41)
Andrea Saltelli, Silvio Funtowicz, Science wars in the age of Donald Trump, November 16, 2016, The Conversation.
Andrea Saltelli, Science in crisis: from the sugar scam to Brexit, our faith in experts is fading, September 27, 2016, The Conversation.
Andrea Saltelli, and Silvio Funtowicz, “Science cannot solve these problems alone because it helped to create them in the first place”, The Guardian, July 14.
Extended version of the piece
Andrea Saltelli, Jerome R. Ravetz and Silvio Funtowicz, A new community for science, NEW SCIENTIST, issue 3079, p. 53, 22 June 2016.
Alessandro Galli , Mario Giampietro , Steve Goldfinger , Elias Lazarus , David Lin , Andrea Saltelli , Matthis Wackernagel , Felix Müller, 2016, Questioning the ecological footprint , Ecological Indicators, 69, 224–232.
Same paper on this web site.
Saltelli, A., Funtowicz, S., Giampietro, M., Sarewitz, D., Stark, P.B., van der Sluijs, J.P., 2016, Climate costing is politics not science, Nature, 14 April, 532, 177.
Ferretti, F., Saltelli A., Tarantola, S., 2016, Trends in Sensitivity Analysis practice in the last decade, Science of the Total Environment, 568, 666-670.
William Becker, Paolo Paruolo, Andrea Saltelli, Exploring Hoover and Perez's experimental designs using global sensitivity analysis.
Ravetz, R. and Saltelli, A., 2015, Policy: The future of public trust in science, Nature, 524, p. 161.
Here in draft copy
Saltelli, A., Stark, P.B., Becker, W., and Stano, P. , 2015, Climate Models as Economic Guides. Scientific Challenge or Quixotic Quest? Issues in Science and Technology (IST), Volume XXXI Issue 3, Spring 2015.
Giampietro, M., and Saltelli, A., 2014, Footworking in Circles, Reply to Goldfinger at al. (2014) “Footprint Facts and Fallacies: A Response to Giampietro and Saltelli (2014) Footprints to nowhere”, Ecological Indicators, 46, 260–263.
Giampietro, M., and Saltelli, A., 2014, Footprints to nowhere, Ecological Indicators, 46, 610–621.
Saltelli, A., Funtowicz, S., 2014, When all models are wrong: More stringent quality criteria are needed for models used at the science-policy interface, Issues in Science and Technology, Winter 2014, 79-85.
Here at the journal's site.
Saltelli, A., Guimarães Pereira, Â., Van der Sluijs, J.P. and Funtowicz, S., 2013, ‘What do I make of your latinorum? Sensitivity auditing of mathematical modelling’, Int. J. Foresight and Innovation Policy, (9), 2/3/4, 213–234.
Paruolo, P., Saisana, A., Saltelli, A., 2013, Ratings and rankings: Voodoo or Science? Journal Royal Statistical Society A, 176 (3), 609–634.
Gardi, C., Jeffery, S. Saltelli, A., 2013, An Estimate of Potential Threats Levels to Soil Biodiversity in EU, 2012, Global Change Biology, 19(5), 1538–1548.
Saltelli, A., M. Ratto, S. Tarantola and F. Campolongo, 2012 (Perennial Review of the 2005 paper), Sensitivity Analysis for Chemical Models, Chemical Reviews, 112 (5), pp PR1–PR21.
Saisana, M., D’Hombres, B., and Saltelli, A., Rickety Numbers: Volatility of university rankings and policy implications, 2011, Research Policy, 40 165–177.
Saisana, M. and Saltelli, M., 2011, Rankings and ratings: instructions for use, Hague Journal on the Rule of Law. 3, 247-268.
Saltelli, A., D’Hombres, B., Jesinghaus, J., Manca, A., Mascherini, M., Nardo, M., and Saisana, M., 2011, Indicators for European Union Policies. Business as usual?, Social Indicators Research, 102(2), 197-207.
Campolongo F, Saltelli A, Cariboni, J, 2011, From screening to quantitative sensitivity analysis. A unified approach, Computer Physics Communication. 182 (4), pp. 978-988.
Saltelli, A., Annoni, P., 2010, How to avoid a perfunctory sensitivity analysis, Environmental Modeling and Software, 25, 1508-1517.
Saltelli, A., D’Hombres, B., Sensitivity analysis didn't help. A practitioner's critique of the Stern review, 2010, Global Environmental Change, 20, 298-302.
Saltelli, A., Annoni, P., Azzini, I., Campolongo, F., Ratto, M., Tarantola, S., 2010, Variance based sensitivity analysis of model output. Design and estimator for the total sensitivity index, Computer Physics Communications, 181, 259–270.
Saltelli, A., Campolongo, F. Cariboni, J., 2009, Screening important inputs in models with strong interaction properties, Reliability Engineering & System Safety 94 (7), 1149-1155.
J.Cariboni, Gatelli D., Liska R. and Saltelli A. (2007) The Role Of Sensitivity Analysis In Ecological Modelling, Ecological Modelling, 2007, 2 0 3, 167–182.
A. Saltelli, 2006, Composite indicators between analysis and advocacy, Social Indicators Research, 2007, 81 , 65-77.
Andrea Saltelli, Marco Ratto, Stefano Tarantola, Francesca Campolongo, Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference, 2006, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 91, (10-11), 1109-1125.
Saisana M., Saltelli A., Tarantola S. (2005) Uncertainty and Sensitivity analysis techniques as tools for the quality assessment of composite indicators, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society - A, 168(2), 307-323.
Toshimitsu HOMMA and Andrea SALTELLI, 2005, Use of Sobol's Quasirandom Sequence Generator for Integration of Modified Uncertainty Importance Measure, Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 32:11, 1164-1173.
Andrea Saltelli & Silvio Funtowicz (2005) The Precautionary Principle: Implications for Risk Management Strategies, Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal, 11:1, 69-83.
Saltelli, A., 2004, Sensitivity analysis: Could better methods be used? JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 104, NO. D3, PAGES 3789-3793.
... and its errata corrige.
E. Borgonovo, G.E. Apostolakis, S. Tarantola,, A. Saltelli, 2003, Comparison of global sensitivity analysis techniques and importance measures in PSA, Reliability Engineering and System Safety 79, 175–185.
Saltelli A. Tarantola S., 2002, On the relative importance of input factors in mathematical models: safety assessment for nuclear waste disposal, Journal of American Statistical Association, 97 (459), 702-709.
Saltelli A., 2002, Making best use of model evaluations to compute sensitivity indices, Computer Physics Communications, 145, 280-297.
Saltelli A., 2002, Sensitivity Analysis for Importance Assessment, Risk Analysis, 22 (3), 1-12.
Saltelli, A., Tarantola, S. Campolongo, F., 2000, Sensitivity analysis as an ingredient of modelling, Statistical Science, 15(4), 377-395.
F. Campolongo , S. Tarantola, A. Saltelli, 1999, Tackling quantitatively large dimensionality problems, Computer Physics Communications, Volume 117, Issues 1–2, 1 March 1999, Pages 75–85.
Saltelli A., Tarantola S., and Chan K., 1999, A quantitative, model independent method for global sensitivity analysis of model output, Technometrics, 41(1), 39-56.
Saltelli A., and Bolado R., 1998, An alternative way to compute Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST), Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 26(4) 445-460.
Archer, G., Saltelli, A. and Sobol', I. M., 1997, Sensitivity measures, ANOVA like techniques and the use of bootstrap. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation 58, 99-120.
Homma T., and Saltelli A., 1996 , Importance measures in global sensitivity analysis of model output, 1996, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 52 No. 1 1-17.
Homma, T., Saltelli, A., 1995 ,Use of Sobol's Quasirandom Sequence Generator for Integration of Modified Uncertainty, Journal of NUCLEAR SCIENCE and TECHNOLOGY, 32 , pp.1164-1173.
Saltelli, A., Andres T.H., and Homma T., 1995, Sensitivity Analysis of model output. Performance of the Iterated Fractional Factorial Design (IFFD) method, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 20, 387-407.
A. Saltelli, I.M. Sobol’, About the use of rank transformation in sensitivity analysis of model output, Reliability Engineering and System Safety 50 (1995) 225–239.
Saltelli A., Andres T. H. and Homma T., 1993, Some new techniques in sensitivity analysis of model output, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 15, 211.
Saltelli, A. and T. Homma, Sensitivity analysis for model output, Performance of black-box techniques on three international benchmark exercises, Computational Statististics Data Analysis, 13 (1992) 73-94.
analysis, sensitivity auditing, science for policy, impact assessment